Tracking Supermarket Prices with Playwright
Plus, more links to make you a little bit smarter today.
Making a new video every week until I make $5 million - Week 13
10 Secret Tricks You Didn’t Know About Grafana
We’ve mentioned Grafana here and there when it comes to being a powerhouse for visualizing metrics and logs. In this post, we’re unveiling 10 secret tricks that even seasoned Grafana users might not know about! Whether you’re building dashboards for a high-stakes production environment or just fine-tuning some personal monitoring tools, these tips will give you a serious edge in your analysis.
Towards Reasoning Ability of Small Language Models
Reasoning has long been viewed as an emergent property of large language models (LLMs), appearing at or above a certain scale (100B parameters). However, recent studies challenge this assumption, showing that small language models (SLMs) can also achieve competitive reasoning performance. SLMs are increasingly favored for their efficiency and deployability. However, there is a lack of systematic study on the reasoning abilities of diverse SLMs, including those trained from scratch or derived from LLMs through quantization, pruning, and distillation. This raises a critical question: Can SLMs achieve reasoning abilities comparable to LLMs? In this work, we systematically survey, benchmark, and analyze 72 SLMs from six model families across 14 reasoning benchmarks. For reliable evaluation, we examine four evaluation methods and compare four LLM judges against human evaluations on 800 data points. We repeat all experiments three times to ensure a robust performance assessment. Additionally, we analyze the impact of different prompting strategies in small models. Beyond accuracy, we also evaluate model robustness under adversarial conditions and intermediate reasoning steps. Our findings challenge the assumption that scaling is the only way to achieve strong reasoning. Instead, we foresee a future where SLMs with strong reasoning capabilities can be developed through structured training or post-training compression. They can serve as efficient alternatives to LLMs for reasoning-intensive tasks.
Towards Understanding Multi-Round Large Language Model Reasoning: Approximability, Learnability and Generalizability
Recent advancements in cognitive science and multi-round reasoning techniques for Large Language Models (LLMs) suggest that iterative thinking processes improve problem-solving performance in complex tasks. Inspired by this, approaches like Chain-of-Thought, debating, and self-refinement have been applied to auto-regressive LLMs, achieving significant successes in tasks such as mathematical reasoning, commonsense reasoning, and multi-hop question answering. Despite these successes, the theoretical basis for how multi-round reasoning enhances problem-solving abilities remains underexplored. In this work, we investigate the approximation, learnability, and generalization properties of multi-round auto-regressive models. We show that Transformers with finite context windows are universal approximators for steps of Turing-computable functions and can approximate any Turing-computable sequence-to-sequence function through multi-round reasoning. We extend PAC learning to sequence generation and demonstrate that multi-round generation is learnable even when the sequence length exceeds the model's context window. Finally, we examine how generalization error propagates across rounds, and show how the aforementioned approaches can help constrain this error, ensuring outputs stay within an expectation boundary. This work sheds light on the systemic theoretical foundations of multi-round sequence learning and reasoning, emphasizing its role in inference complexity.
Tracking supermarket prices with playwright
Back in Dec 2022, when inflation was running high, I built a website for tracking price changes in the three largest supermarkets of my home country, Greece.
TRADES: Generating Realistic Market Simulations with Diffusion Models
Financial markets are complex systems characterized by high statistical noise, nonlinearity, and constant evolution. Thus, modeling them is extremely hard. We address the task of generating realistic and responsive Limit Order Book (LOB) market simulations, which are fundamental for calibrating and testing trading strategies, performing market impact experiments, and generating synthetic market data. Previous works lack realism, usefulness, and responsiveness of the generated simulations. To bridge this gap, we propose a novel TRAnsformer-based Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Engine for LOB Simulations (TRADES). TRADES generates realistic order flows conditioned on the state of the market, leveraging a transformer-based architecture that captures the temporal and spatial characteristics of high-frequency market data. There is a notable absence of quantitative metrics for evaluating generative market simulation models in the literature. To tackle this problem, we adapt the predictive score, a metric measured as an MAE, by training a stock price predictive model on synthetic data and testing it on real data. We compare TRADES with previous works on two stocks, reporting an x3.27 and x3.47 improvement over SoTA according to the predictive score, demonstrating that we generate useful synthetic market data for financial downstream tasks. We assess TRADES's market simulation realism and responsiveness, showing that it effectively learns the conditional data distribution and successfully reacts to an experimental agent, giving sprout to possible calibrations and evaluations of trading strategies and market impact experiments. We developed DeepMarket, the first open-source Python framework for market simulation with deep learning. Our repository includes a synthetic LOB dataset composed of TRADES's generates simulations. We release the code at this http URL.
TradingAgents: Multi-Agents LLM Financial Trading Framework
Significant progress has been made in automated problem-solving using societies of agents powered by large language models (LLMs). In finance, efforts have largely focused on single-agent systems handling specific tasks or multi-agent frameworks independently gathering data. However, the multi-agent systems' potential to replicate real-world trading firms' collaborative dynamics remains underexplored. TradingAgents proposes a novel stock trading framework inspired by trading firms, featuring LLM-powered agents in specialized roles such as fundamental analysts, sentiment analysts, technical analysts, and traders with varied risk profiles. The framework includes Bull and Bear researcher agents assessing market conditions, a risk management team monitoring exposure, and traders synthesizing insights from debates and historical data to make informed decisions. By simulating a dynamic, collaborative trading environment, this framework aims to improve trading performance. Detailed architecture and extensive experiments reveal its superiority over baseline models, with notable improvements in cumulative returns, Sharpe ratio, and maximum drawdown, highlighting the potential of multi-agent LLM frameworks in financial trading. TradingAgents is available at this https URL.