The Only Good Self-Help Book

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The Only Good Self-Help Book

I am sick and tired of self-help books. Moreso, I am sick and tired of people pretending that self-help books are bigger than they are. To see dressed-up advice literature like Outliers and Originals constantly hit top recommendation charts only for people within the same breath to say “Oh, I hate self-help! I only read real books!” has driven me near to the point of mental insanity.

Generative emulation of weather forecast ensembles with diffusion models

We present SEEDS, new AI technology to accelerate and improve weather forecasts using diffusion models. SEEDS enables significant reduction in computational cost for generating ensemble forecasts and better characterization of rare or extreme weather events.

DeepTraderX: Challenging Conventional Trading Strategies with Deep Learning in Multi-Threaded Market Simulations

In this paper, we introduce DeepTraderX (DTX), a simple Deep Learning-based trader, and present results that demonstrate its performance in a multi-threaded market simulation. In a total of about 500 simulated market days, DTX has learned solely by watching the prices that other strategies produce. By doing this, it has successfully created a mapping from market data to quotes, either bid or ask orders, to place for an asset. Trained on historical Level-2 market data, i.e., the Limit Order Book (LOB) for specific tradable assets, DTX processes the market state S at each timestep T to determine a price P for market orders. The market data used in both training and testing was generated from unique market schedules based on real historic stock market data. DTX was tested extensively against the best strategies in the literature, with its results validated by statistical analysis. Our findings underscore DTX’s capability to rival, and in many instances, surpass, the performance of public-domain traders, including those that outclass human traders, emphasising the efficiency of simple models, as this is required to succeed in intricate multi-threaded simulations. This highlights the potential of leveraging ”black-box” Deep Learning systems to create more efficient financial markets.

LONG SHORT-TERM MEMORY PATTERN RECOGNITION IN CURRENCY TRADING

This study delves into the analysis of financial markets through the lens of Wyckoff Phases, a framework devised by Richard D. Wyckoff in the early 20th century. Focusing on the accumulation pattern within the Wyckoff framework, the research explores the phases of trading range and secondary test, elucidating their significance in understanding market dynamics and identifying potential trading opportunities. By dissecting the intricacies of these phases, the study sheds light on the creation of liquidity through market structure, offering insights into how traders can leverage this knowledge to anticipate price movements and make informed decisions. The effective detection and analysis of Wyckoff patterns necessitate robust computational models capable of processing complex market data, with spatial data best analyzed using Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) and temporal data through Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models. The creation of training data involves the generation of swing points, representing significant market movements, and filler points, introducing noise and enhancing model generalization. Activation functions, such as the sigmoid function, play a crucial role in determining the output behavior of neural network models. The results of the study demonstrate the remarkable efficacy of deep learning models in detecting Wyckoff patterns within financial data, underscoring their potential for enhancing pattern recognition and analysis in financial markets. In conclusion, the study highlights the transformative potential of AI-driven approaches in financial analysis and trading strategies, with the integration of AI technologies shaping the future of trading and investment practices.

On the potential of quantum walks for modeling financial return distributions

Accurate modeling of the temporal evolution of asset prices is crucial for understanding financial markets. We explore the potential of discrete-time quantum walks to model the evolution of asset prices. Return distributions obtained from a model based on the quantum walk algorithm are compared with those obtained from classical methodologies. We focus on specific limitations of the classical models, and illustrate that the quantum walk model possesses great flexibility in overcoming these. This includes the potential to generate asymmetric return distributions with complex market tendencies and higher probabilities for extreme events than in some of the classical models. Furthermore, the temporal evolution in the quantum walk possesses the potential to provide asset price dynamics.

Swing contract pricing: with and without Neural Networks

We propose two parametric approaches to evaluate swing contracts with firm constraints. Our objective is to define approximations for the optimal control, which represents the amounts of energy purchased throughout the contract. The first approach involves approximating the optimal control by means of an explicit parametric function, where the parameters are determined using stochastic gradient descent based algorithms. The second approach builds on the first one, where we replace parameters in the first approach by the output of a neural network. Our numerical experiments demonstrate that by using Langevin based algorithms, both parameterizations provide, in a short computation time, better prices compared to state-of-the-art methods.