Building an AI game studio: what we’ve learned so far

Plus, more links to make you a little bit smarter today.

I Replaced My AI Art with Real Art

Time Travel is Real. Here’s How to Use It.

What if I told you that you could slow down time to get more done, or quicken time during boring sections of the day? Believe it or not, it’s possible.

Movie Revenue Prediction Using Machine Learning Models

In the contemporary film industry, accurately predicting a movie’s earnings is paramount for maximizing profitability. This project aims to develop a machine learning model for predicting movie earnings based on input features like the movie name, the MPAA rating of the movie, the genre of the movie, the year of release of the movie, the IMDb Rating, the votes by the watchers, the director, the writer and the leading cast, the country of production of the movie, the budget of the movie, the production company and the runtime of the movie. Through a structured methodology involving data collection, preprocessing, analysis, model selection, evaluation, and improvement, a robust predictive model is constructed. Linear Regression, Decision Trees, Random Forest Regression, Bagging, XGBoosting and Gradient Boosting have been trained and tested. Model improvement strategies include hyperparameter tuning and cross-validation. The resulting model offers promising accuracy and generalization, facilitating informed decision-making in the film industry to maximize profits.

Prompt Exploration with Prompt Regression

In the advent of democratized usage of large language models (LLMs), there is a growing desire to systematize LLM prompt creation and selection processes beyond iterative trial-and-error. Prior works majorly focus on searching the space of prompts without accounting for relations between prompt variations. Here we propose a framework, Prompt Exploration with Prompt Regression (PEPR), to predict the effect of prompt combinations given results for individual prompt elements as well as a simple method to select an effective prompt for a given use-case. We evaluate our approach with open-source LLMs of different sizes on several different tasks.

Dynamic Asset Pricing in a Unified Bachelier-Black-Scholes-Merton Model

We present a unified, market-complete model that integrates both the Bachelier and Black-Scholes-Merton frameworks for asset pricing. The model allows for the study, within a unified framework, of asset pricing in a natural world that experiences the possibility of negative security prices or riskless rates. In contrast to classical BlackScholes-Merton, we show that option pricing in the unified model displays a difference depending on whether the replicating, self-financing portfolio uses riskless bonds or a single riskless bank account. We derive option price formulas and extend our analysis to the term structure of interest rates by deriving the pricing of zero-coupon bonds, forward contracts, and futures contracts. We identify a necessary condition for the unified model to support a perpetual derivative. Discrete binomial pricing under the unified model is also developed. In every scenario analyzed, we show that the unified model simplifies to the standard Black-Scholes-Merton pricing under specific limits and provides pricing in the Bachelier model limit. We note that the Bachelier limit within the unified model allows for positive riskless rates. The unified model prompts us to speculate on the possibility of a mixed multiplicative and additive deflator model for risk-neutral option pricing.

Building an AI game studio: what we’ve learned so far

Braindump is our attempt to imagine what game creation could be like in the brave new world of LLMs and generative AI. We want to give you an entire AI game studio, complete with coders, artists, and so on, to help you create your dream game.

A Bayesian theory of market impact

The available liquidity at any time in financial markets falls largely short of the typical size of the orders that institutional investors would trade. In order to reduce the impact on prices due to the execution of large orders, traders in financial markets split large orders into a series of smaller ones, which are executed sequentially. The resulting sequence of trades is called a meta-order. Empirical studies have revealed a non-trivial set of statistical laws on how meta-orders affect prices, which include i) the square-root behaviour of the expected price variation with the total volume traded, ii) its crossover to a linear regime for small volumes, and iii) a reversion of average prices towards its initial value, after the sequence of trades is over. Here we recover this phenomenology within a minimal theoretical framework where the market sets prices by incorporating all information on the direction and speed of trade of the meta-order in a Bayesian manner. The simplicity of this derivation lends further support to the robustness and universality of market impact laws. In particular, it suggests that the square-root impact law originates from the over-estimation of order flows originating from meta-orders.